POKER POT ODDS

The Ins and Outs of Outs

By calculating your “outs” i.e odds what cards you need to win and combining them with some basic probability, you are well equipped to decide when to fold and when to stay in.

First, you need to remember that there are fifty-two cards in the deck. Easy so far, right? Next you need to count how many cards you actually see. For instance, If you are playing Holdem, you see the two cards in your hand and the cards in the flop, turne, or river. In stud games, you will see your hole card(s) and everyone’s up cards. So in Holdem, for example, if you see a total of six cards (two in your hand and four in the widow), then you subtract that amount from fifty-two and get forty-six-this is the number of cards you have not seen.

The next steps involve figuring out what your potential winning hands are, what cards will make these hands, and how many more opportunities you have to get them.
In many cases you will have several outs more than one way you can win. Let’s say in Holdem your pocket hand is 6♦ -7♦. The flop show 5♦ -8♦ - 6♠. So at the beginning you see that you have a pair of 6s and a four-flush hand. In order to start thinking about what a winning hand is, you must assess what is the best possible hand showing. In this example with a widow of 5♦ - 6♠ - 8♦ , someone may have a straight flush, so unless you luck out, and two more 6s appear in the widow, the pair is of little value to you.

However, you are in good shape because you only need one diamond. And, if you are really lucky, you might get the 9 of diamonds and get a straight flush. You could also make straight with the 5♦ - 6♠ - 8♦ already showing, but someone else may have the straight already, so you probably want to focus on drawing the flush. Admittedly, it is a lot to think about, but as you play more and more, these types of assessments will become second nature. To break down the odds even further, go to the next card.

AS A REMINDER, OUR TEXAS HOLDEM HAND HAS 6♦ - 7♦ IN THE POCKET AND 5♦ - 6♠ - 8♦ IN THE WIDOW. ON THE TURN YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEE:

One more diamond for the flush. There are thirteen diamonds in the deck and you see four of them = nine outs.

NOW YOU APPLY THE OUTS TO FIGURE PROBABILITY AND ODDS:
For the flush you have seen five cards, forty-seven cards remain, and there are still nine diamonds out there that can help you. Since nine out of the forty-seven will get your flush, you have approximately a 19 percent chance of getting your flush on the turn. However, with two chances (the turn and the river), at this point, you can estimate the pot odds by doubling, so figure you have about a 38 percent chance of getting your flush.
For the straight flush you have seen five cards, forty-seven remain, one card can help you, and you have two more chances of getting the 9♦ .

PROBABILITY: 1 in 47 or approximately 2 percent. Two chances would make it 4 percent.

If the turn reveals a K♥, your outs have not changed. However, you now only have one more shot at getting another diamond, so if other players are betting high, be careful.
Learning how to calculate outs can and should applied to stud poker games as well. Since there are more cards out there, it is a little trickier. In stud games look at other players’ exposed cards, remember what cards have been folded, and count how many cards are left that can help you to calculate your odds.

When calculating odds, you must remember that it is a tool to help you get a better sense of your chances; it cannot tell you whether or not you will win. Obviously, you do not know what cards your opponents have in the hole, so your calculation of the odds is only based on what you see. Apply your assessment of your outs with other information at your disposal, particularly how players are betting. All of this is to say that calculating outs will definitely make you a better poker player but it’s no guarantee. There’s always that thing called luck.